Experts query population forecast figures

The latest migration predictions for the UK have been challenged by experts who argue claims that Britain will reach 70 million by 2029. The figures, released this week, suggest that immigration and a rising birth-rate will see a population boom.

However, migration officials have denied the claims saying that the projections are based on the past decade and the next ten years were unlikely to produce similar results.

The Public Policy Research head, Tim Finch, claimed that the projections made by the Office for National Statistics has made assumptions acting on recent data whereas future patterns are likely to be vastly different. Finch pointed to the opening of EU borders which has previously encouraged migrant workers from Eastern Europe as a trend of the past.

The migration patterns of recent years have been predominantly inbound up until the recession but the outlook is for slowing numbers and increased emigration, meaning the figure of 70 million may be inaccurate. The ONS has said that Britain’s current population of 61.4 million would rise to 71.6 million by the year 2033, passing the 70 million mark somewhere during 2029. Such growth would be the largest since the baby boom and according to the ONS could mean numbers the equivalent of the city of Bristol added every day.

A new baby boom is unlikely as immigration crackdowns continue. In 2008 one if four newborns were from non-UK born mothers who statistically have a higher rate of child-bearing aged women and also a higher fertility rate than their British counterparts. The ONS projections have not worried Home Secretary Alan Johnson who has stated that he is not losing any sleep over population growth hitting 70 million.